The Ministry of Labour and Social Protection has officially announced the start of drafting a Government Decision that will establish the projected average monthly salary for the Moldovan economy in 2026.
This indicator is strategically important for both the state and the business sector, as it affects numerous legal norms, financial calculations and fiscal obligations.
In this extended Intelcont analysis, we provide:
- up-to-date information on the initiation of the draft decision;
- an analytical overview of how this indicator influences taxes, social benefits and criminal legislation;
- a comparative dynamic across previous years;
- projections, risks and recommendations for employers;
- a detailed FAQ section and expert commentary.
What the Projected Average Salary Is and Why It Matters
The projected average monthly salary (Salariul mediu lunar prognozat) is a macroeconomic indicator calculated by the Ministry of Economy and approved by the Government.
It is used in multiple regulatory and financial processes, including:
- as the calculation base for social benefits (disability, sick leave, maternity allowances);
- as the income base for employees of IT Park residents;
- in determining the amount of damage in criminal cases;
- in assessing tax violations and their severity;
- for compensation calculations, labour disputes and court proceedings;
- for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting.
In other words, it is one of Moldova’s key financial reference indicators.
Preliminary Forecast of Average Salaries: Dynamics 2021–2025 and Expectations for 2026
The indicator has been increasing every year — sometimes moderately, sometimes sharply (for example, the 2023 jump was driven by inflation).
Average Salary Dynamics Table (2021–2025)
(according to official Government data)
| Year | Average Salary (MDL) | Growth % | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 8,716 | — | Post-COVID recovery period |
| 2022 | 9,900 | +13.6% | High inflation, indexation |
| 2023 | 11,700 | +18.2% | Labour market adjustment |
| 2024 | 13,700 | +17.0% | Productivity growth and inflationary pressure |
| 2025 | 16,100 | +17.5% | Shift to a higher salary baseline |
Forecast for 2026
Based on:
- current inflation levels,
- GDP growth,
- increases in the minimum wage,
- labour productivity trends,
the expected indicator is: 17,800 – 18,500 MDL.
(the exact amount will be approved by Government decision).
Why the Year 2026 Matters — What Will Change
The 2026 indicator is expected to be one of the highest ever recorded. This means:
- an increase in employer labour-cost expenses;
- higher social benefits;
- larger compensation amounts and fines under several Criminal Code articles;
- changes to the income base for IT-park residents;
- a revision of the insurance contribution base.
How the Indicator Is Used in Legislation
The projected average salary is applied in dozens of regulatory calculations. Key areas include:
Social Benefits (CAS)
It is used to determine:
- the maximum calculation base for social allowances,
- the calculation of temporary incapacity benefits,
- maternity benefits.
IT Sector (residents of IT Parks)
For employees working in IT parks, the projected salary serves as the base for calculating:
- income tax,
- mandatory contributions,
- social and medical insurance payments.
Growth of the indicator → increased costs for IT companies.
Criminal Code — Damage Assessment
The indicator directly affects the determination of:
- damage in criminal offences (Art. 126 of the Criminal Code),
- damage related to tax evasion by legal entities (Art. 244 of the Criminal Code),
- damage caused through abuse of office, unjustified refusal to issue permits, etc. (Art. 328 of the Criminal Code).
Growth of the projected average salary → higher thresholds for criminal qualification (minimum damage amounts increase).
What This Means for Businesses: Practical Analysis
Rising Employer Expenses
The indicator is used in multiple calculations, including:
- mandatory contributions,
- compensations,
- sick-leave payments.
In 2026, total company expenses may increase by 5–12%.
Budget Revisions
Businesses should review and recalculate in advance:
- the wage fund (payroll budget),
- cash-flow gaps,
- financial reserves.
More Cases Fall Under “Minor Violations” Rather Than “Significant Damage”
The rise in the average salary will raise damage thresholds, reducing legal risks for companies under Articles 244 and 328 of the Criminal Code.
Impact on IT Companies
An increase in the projected salary leads to higher:
- tax burden,
- mandatory contributions per employee.
Intelcont Recommendations for Employers
- Review and update salary budgets for 2026
- Recalculate all mandatory payments and contributions
- Verify compliance of HR documents (pay scales, salary grids)
- Assess risk areas related to Articles 244 and 328 of the Criminal Code
- Calculate the expected financial burden for IT Park residents
- Consider options for tax optimisation and available incentives
FAQ
When will the indicator be approved?
After public consultations and Government approval — typically by the end of the year.
Is this indicator mandatory for everyone?
Yes, it applies to all legal entities and individuals covered by the legislation.
Is this indicator linked to the minimum salary?
No, but an increase in the minimum salary may indirectly influence the forecast.
What should businesses do right now?
Prepare the 2026 budget considering a projected increase of 10–15%.
Conclusion
The projected average salary for 2026 will become a key macroeconomic benchmark for both the state and the business sector. Its growth impacts taxes, social benefits, criminal law thresholds, corporate financial planning, and employers’ personnel expenses.
Intelcont experts are ready to:
- prepare individual calculations for your company,
- forecast the expected financial burden,
- optimise your tax strategy.
